South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Mirassol FC vs. CA Lanús end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb48a109f33950dcccfc428b3fef96562cf057f6631963dabf42e77f68b54eda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 33c | 3,428$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.09 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 2,062$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.2 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed No | 61c | 1,449$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.55 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 39c | 963.4$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.73 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…1576backed No | 69c | 747.99$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.88 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c4…2d95backed Yes | 31c | 711.89$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.87 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 40c | 414.43$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.32 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 66c | 412.45$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.44 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Yes | 14c | 395.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbe…f9e5backed Yes | 33c | 349.02$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 68c | 302.07$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 68c | 285.04$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.54 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 73c | 280.69$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.86 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 30c | 276.45$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 67c | 180$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 67c | 162.82$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 67c | 156.24$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 67c | 144$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed No | 68c | 136.92$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29b…da59backed Yes | 35c | 131.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 67c | 106.06$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 213 | 49.8%106 W · 107 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 33c | 101.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 70c | 99.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 32c | 95.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 23c | 93.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 21c | 93.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Yes | 34c | 91.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea32…8870backed Yes | 32c | 64.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…b425backed No | 50c | 56.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…d488backed No | 68c | 56.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed No | 67c | 48.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 104 | 67.3%70 W · 34 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed No | 59c | 45.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa426…540dbacked No | 68c | 39.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed No | 70c | 35.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 68c | 30.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed No | 70c | 26.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…c0e2backed No | 73c | 25.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…f926backed No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc779…a904backed No | 70c | 22.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 70cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44d5…1a5bbacked No | 67c | 17.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed No | 68c | 16.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 213 | 59.6%127 W · 86 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe65…0546backed No | 70c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mirassol FC vs. CA Lanús end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Lanús win on 2026-04-08?No won
- Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.