Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb4b21c9c1bc1cfea24ddd1a5d7d0134ac329a9805856464d5e241f4574f5cfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Qingdao Hainiu FCof Qingdao Hainiu FC, Shanghai Haigang FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Qingdao Hainiu FC | 22c | 1,610$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.22 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Shanghai Haigang FC | 77c | 1,500$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Qingdao Hainiu FC | 9c | 477.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.71 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Shanghai Haigang FC | 23c | 434$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Qingdao Hainiu FC | 77c | 229.41$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Qingdao Hainiu FC | 77c | 196.1$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 375 | 59.2%222 W · 153 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…b9c7backed Qingdao Hainiu FC | 13c | 190.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.43 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Qingdao Hainiu FC | 77c | 60.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Shanghai Haigang FC | 25c | 51.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…b169backed Shanghai Haigang FC | 25c | 40.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Qingdao Hainiu FC | 75c | 38.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)this page
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Shanghai Haigang FC (-1.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
- Spread: Shanghai Haigang FC (-2.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.