Asian League · resolved market
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd523277ebab42e569cfaaaa473a70c2f3fe3f17cb6ef4e951f612e8e4dc4491
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 55c | 5,491$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 4,465$2,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,354.92 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 1,639$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.23 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 36c | 1,200$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.97 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 30c | 571$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.89 | 106 | 26.4%28 W · 78 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 40c | 394.71$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.69 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…0031backed Under | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 45c | 125.07$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 54c | 107.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d4…dcfcbacked Under | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 50c | 77.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 50c | 64.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 58c | 62.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Over | 71c | 58.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…98bcbacked Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 48.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 43c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 405 | 50.6%205 W · 200 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under | 35c | 45.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 24c | 40.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec44…d3bbbacked Over | 52c | 31.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 68c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
- Spread: Shanghai Haigang FC (-1.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
- Spread: Shanghai Haigang FC (-2.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.