Australian A League · resolved market
Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb5447855ecad081b9ad22c543b36d1012e2ae7dc4f1bc3249378a52c6868437
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 78c | 1,927$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.2 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 41c | 1,005$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.28 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 890.83$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.37 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 26c | 465.61$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.61 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57c2…d65ebacked Under | 77c | 410.24$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 47c | 403.51$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.07 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 49c | 322.52$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.75 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 64c | 265$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.9 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 52c | 245.73$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 44c | 236.08$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 219.31$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.47 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 209.69$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.67 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 46c | 195.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…6431backed Under | 77c | 174.52$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 61c | 127.29$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 120.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 54c | 117.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…51f7backed Over | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 56c | 100.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 38c | 95.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 55c | 95.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53f7…2544backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 21c | 80.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 55c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…9dd7backed Over | 43c | 57.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…fbb3backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…bb01backed Over | 52c | 49.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 40c | 42.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f6…ee3ebacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 53c | 37.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…cdd3backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…52a6backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Wellington Phoenix FC won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.