Australian A League · resolved market
Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcea083d3f70bd828ad4175d59426469d83823b87c80c87cf786947998a2cfa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wellington Phoenix FCof Melbourne Victory FC, Wellington Phoenix FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 73c | 2,055$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.79 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Melbourne Victory FC | 25c | 945.34$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.01 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Melbourne Victory FC | 37c | 826.25$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.1 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Melbourne Victory FC | 38c | 476.32$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…6e69backed Melbourne Victory FC | 28c | 309.14$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Melbourne Victory FC | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Wellington Phoenix FC | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 34c | 145.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf1…796ebacked Wellington Phoenix FC | 72c | 80.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb0…c9f8backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 72c | 77.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…f103backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 72c | 76.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…f78abacked Wellington Phoenix FC | 72c | 74.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…f7cdbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 28c | 48.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.