College Football · resolved market
South Alabama vs. Texas State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb66f329fcc0534d5e1929da790acba3ead70d6dc1d0c6a267c593e358f20267
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Stateof South Alabama, Texas State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Texas State | 75c | 20,000$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Texas State | 75c | 15,000$11,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,750 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked South Alabama | 25c | 14,245$3,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,561.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed South Alabama | 25c | 13,080$3,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,270.01 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed South Alabama | 25c | 5,200$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.38per pick | 47cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked South Alabama | 25c | 5,134$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.16 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Texas State | 75c | 4,394$3,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.54 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked South Alabama | 26c | 2,501$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.13 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas State | 74c | 2,475$1,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.8 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed South Alabama | 25c | 1,658$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.5 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed South Alabama | 26c | 1,265$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.99 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Texas State | 75c | 1,136$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.54 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Texas State | 74c | 889.18$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.22 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed South Alabama | 24c | 699.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 256 | 29.3%75 W · 181 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca47…3ef4backed South Alabama | 25c | 600.83$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed South Alabama | 25c | 550$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Texas State | 74c | 538.33$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.96 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed South Alabama | 24c | 411.49$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…16e3backed Texas State | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed South Alabama | 14c | 396.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed South Alabama | 26c | 254.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed South Alabama | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked South Alabama | 12c | 221.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…fd45backed South Alabama | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas State | 75c | 154$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed South Alabama | 25c | 151.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked South Alabama | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…cdb1backed South Alabama | 26c | 132.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed South Alabama | 25c | 119.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…d80abacked South Alabama | 25c | 114.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked South Alabama | 15c | 101.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed South Alabama | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked South Alabama | 24c | 81.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70eb…635abacked South Alabama | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked Texas State | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 188 | 68.1%128 W · 60 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…55b1backed South Alabama | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa038…341dbacked South Alabama | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154b…4917backed Texas State | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab50…8f27backed Texas State | 76c | 40.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 74cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…f70abacked Texas State | 76c | 40.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed South Alabama | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f4…d0f6backed Texas State | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…8b02backed Texas State | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf90c…f49cbacked Texas State | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Texas State | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- South Alabama vs. Texas Statethis page
- South Alabama vs. Texas State: O/U 62.5Over won
- Spread: Texas State (-9.5)Texas State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.