Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb7739a510e0fc30fa6f94673b14ba909b6c00beba3a8bb3bfa0c90a0e37ebd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 5c | 518.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 502.7$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 490.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e44…950fbacked No | 2c | 465.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 463.51$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.17 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 77c | 393.32$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.23 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 18c | 303.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 10c | 245.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.54 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 219.17$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 75c | 187.34$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.51 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 54c | 184.76$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 183.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 33c | 181.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.72 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 168.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…c3b0backed No | 6c | 166.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 142.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 21c | 138.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.89 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c3…2555backed No | 9c | 118.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 60c | 117.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 15c | 117.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.86 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 114.44$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 35c | 102.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 18c | 98.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.95 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…86d9backed No | 17c | 96.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 31c | 80.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 42c | 72.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 20c | 67.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…2381backed No | 76c | 64.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 78c | 62.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 60.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 23c | 56.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 56.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…610cbacked Yes | 26c | 55.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 63c | 53.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 63c | 52.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…c5bebacked Yes | 37c | 43.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 34c | 42.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda8…e905backed No | 65c | 40.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 35c | 39.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 38.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 55c | 38.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 27c | 37.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 54c | 34.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 78c | 34.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 34.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 78c | 31.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…8df9backed No | 75c | 29.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 44c | 29.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 63c | 28.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 76c | 19.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 79c | 18.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…d1f3backed Yes | 69c | 18.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…a1c1backed No | 77c | 13.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.