Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3527af18e42ce70c454fc0901f8f33d623d7306e9dd77f9b03fda7399f0ef94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 9c | 832.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.78 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 17c | 472.95$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.57 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 60c | 405.52$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.61 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 74c | 395.15$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.57 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 19c | 372.04$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.75 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 352.84$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a8…0cecbacked No | 79c | 327.86$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 39c | 307.79$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.41 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 35c | 296.93$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.44 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 78c | 285.91$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 15c | 278.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 45c | 252.02$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.16 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 246.67$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 65c | 222.33$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.07 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed Yes | 45c | 183.98$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.53 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce22…5704backed No | 79c | 163.98$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 22c | 162.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.62 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed No | 42c | 161.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +44%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 11c | 154.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 29c | 152.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.6 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 61c | 150.57$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.24 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 80c | 145.01$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 23c | 137.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.22 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…86d9backed Yes | 63c | 129.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 60c | 126.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 125.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 68c | 109.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 60c | 107.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…c5bebacked Yes | 58c | 107.04$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 19c | 104.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 47c | 104$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 24c | 103.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 101.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 32c | 100.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 72c | 98.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 43c | 98.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 29c | 91.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 25c | 90.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…b1b1backed No | 55c | 90.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 27c | 89.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 57c | 89.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 12c | 87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 27c | 85.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 30c | 83.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 61c | 79.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 79c | 74.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 68c | 73.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 69c | 71.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 69c | 69.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 77c | 69.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…ee36backed Yes | 18c | 69.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 22c | 68.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 60c | 67.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 29c | 62.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 79c | 62.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 63c | 60.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked Yes | 35c | 59.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes | 66c | 57.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 43c | 57.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes | 75c | 57.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7a…b4b0backed Yes | 73c | 56.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 41c | 52.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e97…cd70backed Yes | 57c | 50.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…5143backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 76c | 49.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 48c | 49.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 23c | 48.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 71c | 48.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 60c | 48.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 42c | 47.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa014…fe46backed No | 64c | 46.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed No | 30c | 46.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc8…6055backed No | 25c | 43.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…baa8backed Yes | 57c | 41.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…6e24backed No | 25c | 41.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 73c | 40.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 43c | 40.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 63c | 39.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 63c | 39.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 72c | 38.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 65c | 38.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 38c | 37.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…3737backed Yes | 45c | 33.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 44c | 33.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 76c | 32.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 52c | 32.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3b41backed Yes | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…1613backed No | 37c | 27.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 39c | 26.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 57c | 26.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 75c | 25.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 50c | 24.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1845…3127backed Yes | 62c | 23.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e19…cbb0backed No | 64c | 22.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eff…55b1backed Yes | 55c | 20.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ee…3c21backed Yes | 80c | 20.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.8wins | -0.57per pick | 77cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.