Tennis · resolved market
ITF Takasaki: Kyoka Okamura vs Valentina Ryser
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb7b592c27b36538ef714ac4d7128cddbdc5e7d82adca2dfd3181aa7b9c5811e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Valentina Ryserof Kyoka Okamura, Valentina Ryser
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29fb…4930backed Kyoka Okamura | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Valentina Ryser | 62c | 1,387$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.21 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kyoka Okamura | 48c | 960.52$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.09 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Valentina Ryser | 45c | 803.44$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.84 | 376 | 45.7%172 W · 204 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Valentina Ryser | 60c | 782$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.76 | 101 | 61.4%62 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Kyoka Okamura | 73c | 574.21$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.59 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Valentina Ryser | 70c | 399.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 308 | 57.1%176 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Kyoka Okamura | 52c | 384.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -8.2wins | -0.37per pick | 56cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Kyoka Okamura | 55c | 383.34$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.54 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Valentina Ryser | 28c | 375.61$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.26 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…d505backed Valentina Ryser | 31c | 357.56$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.56 | 372 | 35.2%131 W · 241 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Kyoka Okamura | 34c | 279.52$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 783 | 50.3%394 W · 389 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Valentina Ryser | 72c | 203.85$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Valentina Ryser | 36c | 182.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kyoka Okamura | 72c | 182.14$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.34 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Kyoka Okamura | 60c | 167.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 733 | 50.9%373 W · 360 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Kyoka Okamura | 73c | 142$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.66 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Kyoka Okamura | 80c | 137.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.73 | 1,174 | 51.9%609 W · 565 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Valentina Ryser | 39c | 120.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ed…af7bbacked Valentina Ryser | 35c | 117.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Kyoka Okamura | 44c | 113.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Valentina Ryser | 28c | 104.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881e…70f8backed Kyoka Okamura | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Kyoka Okamura | 30c | 98.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 398 | 45.5%181 W · 217 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Valentina Ryser | 52c | 94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Kyoka Okamura | 41c | 80.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Kyoka Okamura | 41c | 57.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Valentina Ryser | 36c | 53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 423 | 50.8%215 W · 208 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Kyoka Okamura | 32c | 47.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Kyoka Okamura | 37c | 46.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Valentina Ryser | 73c | 41.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Kyoka Okamura | 63c | 41.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Kyoka Okamura | 37c | 40.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…2cabbacked Valentina Ryser | 39c | 31.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…23acbacked Kyoka Okamura | 72c | 30.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 617 | 55.9%345 W · 272 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Kyoka Okamura | 35c | 29.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Kyoka Okamura | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 971 | 41.4%402 W · 569 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Kyoka Okamura | 59c | 22.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Kyoka Okamura | 48c | 21.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Valentina Ryser | 52c | 21.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Kyoka Okamura | 59c | 19.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 156 | 5.8%9 W · 147 L | -32.4wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Valentina Ryser | 66c | 17.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…3610backed Valentina Ryser | 74c | 17.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked Kyoka Okamura | 77c | 15.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.