Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb850fb314ab3b24213c84c53ba81a4db3c6c95dd7a4df32d2b871de5035c16b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 384.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 383.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 7c | 335.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 56c | 256.7$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.94 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 80c | 239.07$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 224.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 212.98$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 40c | 196.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 159.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe163…ec40backed No | 53c | 141.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked No | 72c | 104.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 58c | 82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 51c | 77.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 43c | 74.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 55c | 67.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 65.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 65.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 29c | 62.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…d5aebacked Yes | 33c | 54.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 25c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 29c | 49.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 44c | 45.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed No | 70c | 45.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 44.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 38.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 51c | 30.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…2598backed Yes | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 25.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed No | 60c | 24.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C or higher on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.