Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8725a24c415a0fdf2fffb0283f8c1210e6ee8c19f882c2f73acd2bc6d3d33b52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 397.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 365.12$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 46c | 341.94$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.09 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 78c | 216.61$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 29c | 153.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.19 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 41c | 148.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 129.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 56c | 109.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 44c | 99.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked No | 76c | 99.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa276…3584backed Yes | 26c | 90.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd36b…5942backed Yes | 23c | 88.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 13c | 82.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 30c | 74.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 68.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 17c | 66.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 24c | 64.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 63.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…d5aebacked Yes | 39c | 55.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 21c | 53.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 68c | 49.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 48.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 46.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 44.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 37c | 43.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 29c | 41.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 40.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 78c | 37.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 61c | 36.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 35c | 35.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…cbadbacked Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 55c | 29.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 52c | 28.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 57c | 27.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 64c | 26.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…91f1backed No | 59c | 25.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 67c | 24.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…2598backed Yes | 45c | 24.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 61c | 21.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C or higher on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.