Fifa International · resolved market
South Africa leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb8d184fe28c4de96e24c1483f516bcd5e07b5151e62c3543cb5a7c9e2b7bc8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Yes | 18c | 7,658$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…d4b1backed Yes | 18c | 5,257$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.88 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…b7cdbacked Yes | 18c | 4,740$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.26 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 2,538$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.98 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 549 | 17.9%98 W · 451 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 18c | 1,311$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.98 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 368 | 38.6%142 W · 226 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…4c92backed Yes | 18c | 388.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 206 | 30.6%63 W · 143 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2295…17e6backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Yes | 18c | 211.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 580 | 29.5%171 W · 409 L | -19.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 18c | 211.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 165 | 9.7%16 W · 149 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 17c | 171.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 695 | 34.8%242 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 815 | 54.8%447 W · 368 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb47…3502backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 445 | 24.9%111 W · 334 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7978…473cbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…80acbacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 28.1%38 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ef…736dbacked Yes | 18c | 82.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- South Africa leading at halftime?this page
- Czechia leading at halftime?Yes won
- Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.