Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbb1b6cbaed03f4ed9c1919567d63aea8b359e6b1df4329a8d60c10056e75ea1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7a0…a5a8backed No | 4c | 2,011$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 27cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 37c | 656.12$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.93 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 6c | 479.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed No | 5c | 451.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 224$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 25c | 210.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 62c | 177.22$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 26c | 173.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7af…71c0backed No | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 77c | 145.33$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c7…52b6backed No | 12c | 94.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d56…b88dbacked Yes | 47c | 91.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 25c | 78.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 42c | 71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked No | 48c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 62c | 58.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 47c | 49.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 46.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 37.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 77c | 30.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa57c…bf42backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed No | 49c | 28.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 79c | 21.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 6?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.