NFL · resolved market
Justin Fields Week 1 starter for Steelers?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbc21bd5109333eb7d6f35e6d5ac6e64b39844ceba0abcb790ea87269e6bb97e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0fe8…2cbabacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,982 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +4,066.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 11c | 2,854$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.45 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13e…c564backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…f0f2backed No | 2c | 1,400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 18c | 1,274$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.28 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 5c | 428$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.74 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb011…2d13backed Yes | 32c | 328.57$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 79c | 220.68$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 17c | 210.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.8 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…5c65backed No | 77c | 207.42$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 20c | 175$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 19c | 153.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e8…2867backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 89 | 10.1%9 W · 80 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf869…52a7backed Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…a94fbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcb…a83bbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6da1…6e71backed Yes | 42c | 35.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +135.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Justin Fields Week 1 starter for Steelers?this page
- Russell Wilson Week 1 starter for Steelers?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.