Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbdbd67e20ef16d69b8500c85a118d0eb149c8c404819f2f356b60d37b2e1ef2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd812…0ff0backed Yes | 10c | 3,223$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…4a1dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,624$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…45d0backed Yes | 3c | 773.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 121 | 24.8%30 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…4edbbacked Yes | 15c | 752.3$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd15b…f117backed Yes | 2c | 715$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 4c | 653.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 11c | 551.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Yes | 5c | 380.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 13c | 255.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 5c | 251.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…18a2backed Yes | 6c | 211.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff64…a083backed Yes | 14c | 210.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 199.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 6c | 183.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…f8a5backed Yes | 9c | 170.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1a…365fbacked Yes | 24c | 165.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 31c | 149.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 15c | 131$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 8c | 129.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +161.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 114.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe42…c15cbacked Yes | 18c | 105.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…29bebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63cf…9e7cbacked Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 29c | 81.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb78…8818backed Yes | 39c | 79.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 32c | 78.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 24c | 74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 72.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a5…e1c1backed Yes | 16c | 68.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd172…8b88backed No | 76c | 66.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…6a86backed Yes | 37c | 55.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa850…8239backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…0ad0backed Yes | 31c | 40.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 27c | 36.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…a738backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb0…1b9ebacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or higher on January 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.