Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or higher on January 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4faa8b88e1b8001c5f98d90bbcb70e8c0d5170fd3bc65aa696aad28318b5e69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadd8…4edbbacked No | 14c | 3,042$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.39 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed No | 14c | 1,195$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.14 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 2c | 1,150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 9c | 691.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd812…0ff0backed No | 8c | 561.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 2c | 493.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 9c | 395.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 9c | 375.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 5c | 368.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe42…c15cbacked No | 16c | 358.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 5c | 349.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 69c | 252.66$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.5 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46a5…e1c1backed No | 15c | 203.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 20c | 199.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.78 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7935…bb5cbacked No | 14c | 146.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes | 69c | 144.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 44c | 144.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.41 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…5184backed No | 14c | 139.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 25c | 128.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…c7b0backed No | 11c | 105.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…9a3bbacked No | 34c | 94.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes | 64c | 93.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…6ecdbacked No | 60c | 83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…224dbacked Yes | 58c | 81.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 64c | 78.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 59c | 76.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd172…8b88backed Yes | 69c | 72.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb0…993fbacked No | 14c | 71.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8199backed No | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2d…ddc1backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1a…365fbacked Yes | 18c | 68.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…ffdfbacked No | 63c | 63.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 51c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…ca8dbacked No | 19c | 61.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa850…8239backed Yes | 54c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed Yes | 70c | 57.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 41c | 47.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90fa…78a0backed Yes | 42c | 47.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe15…307dbacked Yes | 72c | 45.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…a738backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a95…af3ebacked Yes | 55c | 36.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 38c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 34c | 31.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…0711backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…c218backed No | 39c | 29.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…a9a4backed Yes | 61c | 25.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…96eabacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 68cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…b979backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…099abacked Yes | 70c | 19.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 74c | 18.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or higher on January 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.