Movies · resolved market
Will "Jurassic World Rebirth" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbe4c2b2513b6bebded6784ff99bc5f7e0b5ec51823729ab33ba33a2329cb2e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,195 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed No | 13c | 705$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +73%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60f4…d6debacked No | 13c | 639$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 11c | 530.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed Yes | 75c | 367$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed No | 9c | 308$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 72c | 229.5$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…3db7backed No | 9c | 206.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed Yes | 77c | 206$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed No | 25c | 193$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed No | 25c | 174$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed No | 21c | 147.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 8c | 143.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed No | 13c | 139$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 28c | 88.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 28c | 88.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 27c | 76.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 22c | 66.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…3dbfbacked Yes | 78c | 59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed No | 24c | 50.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked Yes | 72c | 49.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…6c37backed Yes | 72c | 16.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Jurassic World Rebirth" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Nuremberg" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "War Machine" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.