Serie A · resolved market
Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbe809d18bfd55dd1cc19ece90a72b9237fda1750c71bdb42c8a59e1d31d1847
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atalanta BCof Atalanta BC, ACF Fiorentina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed ACF Fiorentina | 66c | 9,789$6,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,460.96 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atalanta BC | 34c | 5,911$2,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,874.4 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Atalanta BC | 34c | 3,199$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,111.34 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Atalanta BC | 30c | 499.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.75 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Atalanta BC | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Atalanta BC | 30c | 166.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.79 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked ACF Fiorentina | 66c | 165$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Atalanta BC | 31c | 97.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.97 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed ACF Fiorentina | 21c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed Atalanta BC | 34c | 47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Atalanta BC | 34c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca8…1148backed ACF Fiorentina | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)this page
- Atalanta BC vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Atalanta BC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atalanta BC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Under won
- Atalanta BC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.