Tennis · resolved market
ITF Horb: Madelief Hageman vs Lian Tran
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbfe70955057625b52cacc23751ddef95ab79de1dd08444a149be203f5ae89b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Madelief Hagemanof Madelief Hageman, Lian Tran
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Lian Tran | 40c | 6,667$2,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,685.26 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Madelief Hageman | 61c | 5,417$3,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,122.37 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Madelief Hageman | 47c | 4,387$2,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,321.05 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Lian Tran | 77c | 1,262$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.75 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lian Tran | 36c | 1,193$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.6 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Madelief Hageman | 57c | 675.57$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.29 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2b…0900backed Lian Tran | 29c | 516.48$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.78 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Madelief Hageman | 40c | 494.16$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.49 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Lian Tran | 69c | 434$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.46 | 1,111 | 45.3%503 W · 608 L | -35.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Lian Tran | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Lian Tran | 23c | 245$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Madelief Hageman | 38c | 110.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.32 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Lian Tran | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80c7backed Lian Tran | 63c | 94.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Lian Tran | 60c | 94.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 898 | 59.7%536 W · 362 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Lian Tran | 63c | 90.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Lian Tran | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Lian Tran | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Lian Tran | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Madelief Hageman | 39c | 79.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Lian Tran | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Madelief Hageman | 48c | 68.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Madelief Hageman | 61c | 65.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Lian Tran | 40c | 62.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1,226 | 52%637 W · 589 L | +44.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc4…4870backed Lian Tran | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 160 | 51.3%82 W · 78 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Lian Tran | 59c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…4bedbacked Madelief Hageman | 48c | 44.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Madelief Hageman | 48c | 44.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…d8f4backed Madelief Hageman | 48c | 44.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Lian Tran | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Lian Tran | 61c | 43.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 408 | 61.3%250 W · 158 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Madelief Hageman | 49c | 42.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Lian Tran | 61c | 41.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Madelief Hageman | 27c | 40.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 355 | 55.5%197 W · 158 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Madelief Hageman | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 394 | 51.8%204 W · 190 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Lian Tran | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Lian Tran | 54c | 25.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Lian Tran | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91c5…be94backed Lian Tran | 60c | 20.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Madelief Hageman | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.