Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Montana Grizzlies vs. Montana State Bobcats
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc49fec36132f6ef7fcfdfd8f5f34261d31b8a24a960622e6ad8b0c198e94cdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Montana State Bobcatsof Montana Grizzlies, Montana State Bobcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Montana Grizzlies | 9c | 4,814$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.34 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed Montana Grizzlies | 21c | 3,137$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.16 | 464 | 46.8%217 W · 247 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Montana State Bobcats | 79c | 1,585$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.41 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e2…b0a7backed Montana State Bobcats | 79c | 1,477$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.14 | 79 | 65.8%52 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Montana Grizzlies | 34c | 757.22$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.87 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Montana Grizzlies | 3c | 356$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Montana State Bobcats | 65c | 272.72$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Montana Grizzlies | 15c | 222$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 149 | 25.5%38 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Montana State Bobcats | 47c | 205.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.08 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Montana State Bobcats | 67c | 118.83$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 480 | 51%245 W · 235 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Montana State Bobcats | 42c | 113$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Montana State Bobcats | 79c | 46.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.