Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-04-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc83665bfd22a928f7a6f82d05580afd1797c0ab50cee94129f4f89fa9cf94d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 38c | 1,310$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.8 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 62c | 1,047$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.82 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 38c | 657.89$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 43c | 490$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.6 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 63c | 490$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.3 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 58c | 430.99$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.63 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 64c | 407.5$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.66 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 62c | 350$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 62c | 262.08$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.59 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 62c | 171.11$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…978cbacked Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 62c | 134.73$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 43c | 132$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 43c | 114.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 63c | 90.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 37c | 72.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed No | 62c | 53.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 66c | 50.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 34c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed No | 62c | 39.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…4a7cbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-04-04?this page
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.