Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-04-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22786135d042989814aa4a346ad6d313503e6e2de01a9138d8b2e5a77d1cde28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d2…d196backed No | 64c | 17,099$10,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,918.23 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 36c | 7,777$2,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,973.23 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 28c | 3,800$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,735.98 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 1,653$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.48 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 53c | 1,640$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.89 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 38c | 958.59$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.03 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Yes | 79c | 942.17$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.74 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 36c | 796$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.13 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 36c | 650$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 39c | 583.08$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.3 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 37c | 578.38$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.38 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Yes | 76c | 404.71$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Yes | 76c | 393.42$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 38c | 291.24$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.82 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Yes | 37c | 270.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.43 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…1dcfbacked Yes | 36c | 244.5$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +261.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 72c | 239.92$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.43 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 72c | 236.32$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.84 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 72c | 235$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.2 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Yes | 38c | 231.85$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.37 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 37c | 230$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.9 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 64c | 214$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.96 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 36c | 214$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.96 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…8f42backed Yes | 36c | 212.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.12 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x694c…eb70backed Yes | 36c | 188.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.89 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 182.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 19c | 167.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.47 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 44c | 162.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked No | 23c | 162$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 36c | 159$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.08 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 69c | 143.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…af78backed Yes | 36c | 130.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +85%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Yes | 36c | 129.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.15 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 49c | 128.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked Yes | 36c | 115.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.04 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked Yes | 36c | 102.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…1f8cbacked Yes | 41c | 96.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 62c | 93.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 75c | 91.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Yes | 36c | 88.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Yes | 36c | 84.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Yes | 36c | 82.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 53c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed No | 72c | 74.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a1…8501backed Yes | 36c | 73.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 36c | 71.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Yes | 36c | 69.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Yes | 36c | 66.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 29c | 66.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Yes | 36c | 64.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 36c | 62.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 36c | 62.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Yes | 36c | 62.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Yes | 36c | 62.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 36c | 62.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Yes | 36c | 56.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 52c | 56.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 72c | 55.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 36c | 52.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 38c | 51.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 62c | 45.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Yes | 36c | 44.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Yes | 36c | 38.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…9d57backed Yes | 36c | 37.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…18f9backed Yes | 36c | 37.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 62c | 37.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Yes | 36c | 36.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked No | 38c | 36.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 65c | 28.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Yes | 36c | 28.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb0…f195backed Yes | 76c | 25.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 62c | 19.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-04-04?this page
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?No won
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-04-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.