Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Porto vs. FC Alverca: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcc3fb1dbf103a739159d018c31513f66a54d6a5b9180597f1a1aec962ae9e23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 45c | 4,832$2,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,190.75 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 3,951$1,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.47 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 52c | 2,509$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.99 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 43c | 1,427$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.68 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8562…ad77backed Over | 40c | 999.99$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…beaebacked Under | 57c | 701.75$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Over | 45c | 446.67$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 20c | 427.75$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.2 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 55c | 394.26$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.87 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 380.22$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.76 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Under | 20c | 321.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.45 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 30c | 241.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.06 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…5102backed Over | 42c | 237.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 54c | 220.72$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.53 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 71c | 211.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Over | 74c | 201.38$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1317backed Over | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 58c | 172.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 16c | 167$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.28 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 256 | 53.1%136 W · 120 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 15c | 161.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.7 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 16c | 155.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.91 | 1,113 | 51%568 W · 545 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…1080backed Over | 33c | 150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad9…4859backed Over | 45c | 142.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 55c | 137.35$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -12.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked Under | 41c | 123.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.73 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +109%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 74c | 104.05$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 74c | 87.84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125c…f50abacked Over | 49c | 79.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 73c | 75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 478 | 42.9%205 W · 273 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…b336backed Under | 74c | 74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 41c | 72.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Over | 64c | 70.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 78c | 65.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 184 | 50.5%93 W · 91 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 30c | 62.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…a035backed Over | 67c | 59.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcb…f3afbacked Under | 52c | 51.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Under | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 53c | 47.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 70c | 46.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d17…0d91backed Under | 38c | 39.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 54c | 36.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under | 54c | 36.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…291fbacked Over | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa00…3cf9backed Over | 57c | 34.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 57c | 34.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 71c | 32.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +19.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…7661backed Over | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…a32bbacked Over | 46c | 29.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 74c | 29.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…54d2backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 73c | 23.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 77c | 23.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Over | 49c | 23.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 123 | 61%75 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb988…f50fbacked Under | 59c | 17.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Porto vs. FC Alverca: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Porto vs. FC Alverca: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Porto vs. FC Alverca: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. FC Alverca: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. FC Alverca: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Alverca (-2.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)FC Alverca won
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)FC Alverca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.