MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdccb990f07191987a7527badd42a4e96d23ea9f43b03ce8d3233b6ee0ef8cb2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed Under | 1c | 25,621$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.7 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 42c | 16,966$7,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,125.7 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 58c | 11,900$6,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,998 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…4a2cbacked Under | 56c | 7,230$4,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,076.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 46c | 4,488$2,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,422.32 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Over | 58c | 2,566$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.71 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 75c | 2,103$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.74 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Over | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 45c | 1,453$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.17 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9569…27fdbacked Under | 54c | 999.7$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.84 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 741.72$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 54c | 721.94$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.41 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 564.09$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 58c | 479.71$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.48 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Over | 46c | 428.13$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.19 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 58c | 427.86$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.95 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 65c | 148.03$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.72 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 57c | 102.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 42c | 57.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…a69bbacked Under | 57c | 42.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…f1c6backed Over | 48c | 28.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…333ebacked Under | 53c | 26.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…8d74backed Over | 76c | 17.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- NRFI: Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.