Stocks · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 end of April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcde369ee76bddb0fd761eebe6442b5444cdb5b46183896be89e6811d9246bf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 13c | 1,304$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.54 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 455.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 21c | 320.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…a2efbacked Yes | 63c | 224.5$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b5…ca30backed No | 50c | 206.27$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa10…3b30backed No | 50c | 195.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781b…9c30backed No | 50c | 195.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…026dbacked No | 50c | 194.61$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b4…a2bcbacked No | 50c | 193.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…d3debacked No | 50c | 193.61$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…be3bbacked No | 50c | 193.21$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…1a81backed No | 50c | 191.78$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403a…2c78backed No | 50c | 191.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…20c7backed No | 50c | 190.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc10…818abacked No | 50c | 185.31$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…dcc8backed No | 50c | 183.68$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…95f9backed No | 50c | 182.2$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa210…4b7cbacked No | 50c | 178.44$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed97…5d0dbacked No | 17c | 175.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272b…2546backed No | 50c | 173.45$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 65c | 155$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 134$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 35c | 105$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…b37cbacked Yes | 62c | 48.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 end of April?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $240 end of April?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $250 end of April?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $260 end of April?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of April?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of April?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of April?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.