Stocks · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff4a9ec8324f9e31b27dae8ea57a8d57b4b10333d1ce88d813387dff45a1d361
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,921$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.49 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 73c | 1,245$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.22 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 45c | 551.62$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.31 | 1,325 | 46.9%622 W · 703 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…c767backed Yes | 5c | 475.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.39 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 10c | 381.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.25 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 11c | 350$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.8 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 213.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.62 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6a…f65ebacked No | 50c | 199.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f5…7baabacked No | 50c | 191.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…a7f9backed No | 50c | 189.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e74…c002backed No | 50c | 184.89$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x573d…2808backed No | 50c | 184$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…b250backed No | 50c | 183.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…7c4dbacked No | 50c | 183.25$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e27…ee16backed No | 50c | 180.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…606fbacked No | 50c | 180.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…201fbacked No | 50c | 179.74$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…e56bbacked No | 50c | 176.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8280…2b64backed No | 50c | 175.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d20…fd3dbacked No | 50c | 174.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…bcb4backed No | 50c | 172.13$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd12…9a22backed No | 50c | 167.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e9…be93backed Yes | 11c | 129.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +1,355.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 18c | 78.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +9.9wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +94%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…c5a8backed Yes | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97bb…85aabacked No | 37c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344a…3eccbacked No | 37c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 41c | 38.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3996…8afdbacked Yes | 63c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f94…d6aabacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…0141backed Yes | 51c | 29.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 76c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed97…5d0dbacked No | 76c | 16.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 75c | 14.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of April?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $240 end of April?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $250 end of April?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $260 end of April?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of April?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 end of April?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of April?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.