Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MODUS vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd150e5f10810ab6ce00073ba2b557478e7d5802efedd32cb5c25e1e4c411cf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MODUSof MODUS, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Nemiga Gaming | 37c | 4,046$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.2 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked MODUS | 49c | 2,278$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked MODUS | 65c | 2,087$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.48 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed Nemiga Gaming | 51c | 1,970$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.24 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked MODUS | 49c | 1,019$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.7 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a7…bcb7backed MODUS | 66c | 685.46$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.92 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked Nemiga Gaming | 35c | 327.83$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.18 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed MODUS | 61c | 324.39$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked MODUS | 48c | 245.16$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.79 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed MODUS | 65c | 226.3$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.21 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked MODUS | 66c | 186.12$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 21c | 152.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed MODUS | 61c | 125.52$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked MODUS | 56c | 89.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 38c | 61.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Nemiga Gaming | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 173 | 40.5%70 W · 103 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 57.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed MODUS | 64c | 53.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 228 | 68%155 W · 73 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93af…32abbacked MODUS | 49c | 47.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nemiga Gaming | 37c | 44.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nemiga Gaming | 35c | 43.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed MODUS | 47c | 41.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d8…e2e8backed Nemiga Gaming | 54c | 37.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…c85abacked MODUS | 64c | 36.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 35c | 35.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 245 | 18.8%46 W · 199 L | -31.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Nemiga Gaming | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MODUS | 58c | 34.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MODUS | 68c | 30.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked MODUS | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked MODUS | 62c | 29.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed MODUS | 49c | 22.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked MODUS | 63c | 19.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group ANemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.