Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd18d99492cb2c623fa0ea7cae14c61c7ecdcf86069693c1b649565e1d182896
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 12c | 638.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 191.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 183.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 162.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 63c | 139.36$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 127.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 68c | 127.56$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 109.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 34c | 106.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 103.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe09…483bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 33c | 98.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 40c | 97.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 66c | 95.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 34c | 67.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 36c | 66.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 64.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 42c | 63.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 48c | 58.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 58.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 33c | 50.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 32c | 49.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 54c | 49.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 37c | 48.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…25bfbacked Yes | 50c | 47.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa19b…3e59backed Yes | 36c | 41.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 38.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 68c | 38.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 43c | 37.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 67c | 35.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 45c | 35.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 68c | 34.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 46c | 31.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Yes | 37c | 29.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 37c | 29.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 64c | 28.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 42c | 26.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 68c | 25.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 70c | 18.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 65c | 17.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 65c | 16.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.