Mls · resolved market
Will Portland Timbers win on 2025-10-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd1cee1c8c01693007dd9a61e9a769be33b02779857828f7134c12512251bd21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 56c | 41,033$23,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,151.33 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 43c | 39,831$17,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,703.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Yes | 45c | 24,232$10,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,357.12 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked No | 55c | 20,860$11,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,473 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 55c | 1,955$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.7 | 3,018 | 43.6%1,316 W · 1,702 L | -28.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 73c | 1,163$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.08 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked No | 30c | 1,063$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.89 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…eaf2backed Yes | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 65c | 485$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.6 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 31c | 302.88$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 68c | 243$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Yes | 70c | 176.79$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 43c | 125$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed No | 55c | 125$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Yes | 59c | 110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 31c | 74.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…696bbacked Yes | 45c | 55.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…fe6abacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…eeb0backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd699…3f8abacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 70c | 16.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portland Timbers win on 2025-10-22?this page
- Will Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw?No won
- Will Real Salt Lake win on 2025-10-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.