Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd1e8cf4cfd2c957fc5bd7117fd4c8d4a852dd1ec8f373803ae5aea9ef7459a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 12c | 1,761$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.68 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 28c | 1,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 10c | 1,337$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.32 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 3c | 880$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 869.68$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.58 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 2c | 801.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -72%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 7c | 721.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 631.83$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.2 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 74c | 570.34$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.29 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 73c | 513.99$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.94 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 26c | 451.66$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.33 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 28c | 387.46$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.15 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 71c | 329.49$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…9d57backed Yes | 16c | 302.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Yes | 16c | 287.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked Yes | 15c | 283.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Yes | 16c | 264.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 21c | 263$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 76c | 250.53$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 27c | 243.34$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 8c | 240$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…7dccbacked Yes | 25c | 235$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Yes | 14c | 234.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked Yes | 16c | 214.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Yes | 16c | 210.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 10c | 206$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…71a1backed Yes | 28c | 178.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 27c | 174$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked Yes | 28c | 157.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 23c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 116.45$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 90.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68f…3211backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 74c | 69.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 28c | 69.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 74c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Yes | 26c | 63.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 75c | 59.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 26c | 52.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 73c | 47.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 74c | 47.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 74c | 24.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed No | 74c | 24.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 74c | 24.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed No | 74c | 20.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 80c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-04?this page
- Will New York Red Bulls vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?No won
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.