Mls · resolved market
Will New York Red Bulls vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb880350b124d99bd1e8dffcb1a0df9558d4672ad65ca846220933996efc4283
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 32c | 4,386$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.44 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 3,171$2,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.29 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 78c | 2,904$2,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.58 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 1,742$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.17 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,353$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.57 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 79c | 944.2$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.05 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 21c | 778.27$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.44 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 23c | 643.48$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 21c | 311.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 304.25$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 19c | 287$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 19c | 279.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 21c | 272.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 24c | 271.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 25c | 268$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 259$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 72c | 250.39$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 14c | 249.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 79c | 220.18$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 77c | 185.17$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 78c | 123.41$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 19c | 121.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…c9a8backed No | 76c | 121.01$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 77cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9303…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 104.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 68c | 103.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 78c | 81.27$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed No | 77c | 79.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Yes | 20c | 76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 23c | 73.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 55.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 21c | 52.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…22cbbacked No | 79c | 52.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc6…6c9fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed No | 77c | 39.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 32c | 31.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 76c | 26.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed No | 80c | 25.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 77c | 23.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked No | 77c | 22.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed No | 77c | 19.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 75c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York Red Bulls vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-04?No won
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.