CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: FarmVille vs OverKnight (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship North American Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd302234c7bf149720c96ed5f73228cf4d27e9b15701a5cfdc161588fa4adf7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FarmVilleof FarmVille, OverKnight
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked OverKnight | 10c | 4,305$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.56 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…2aa9backed OverKnight | 32c | 1,612$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.65 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed FarmVille | 68c | 1,455$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.78 | 195 | 43.6%85 W · 110 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked OverKnight | 9c | 1,024$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.7 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…2120backed OverKnight | 20c | 993.5$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked OverKnight | 7c | 810.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3090…be73backed FarmVille | 77c | 770.96$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.86 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed OverKnight | 19c | 693.29$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.72 | 576 | 41.5%239 W · 337 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6d…3ef9backed OverKnight | 20c | 675.02$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked OverKnight | 5c | 637.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 2,195 | 43.1%946 W · 1,249 L | -68.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed OverKnight | 13c | 616.14$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked OverKnight | 19c | 536.94$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 183 | 41%75 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…a246backed OverKnight | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed OverKnight | 2c | 458.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf981…44b7backed OverKnight | 33c | 443.69$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.42 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…9d8cbacked FarmVille | 67c | 417.55$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.46 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed OverKnight | 18c | 387.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…a386backed OverKnight | 19c | 278.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked OverKnight | 22c | 271.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed OverKnight | 11c | 270.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…3bcebacked OverKnight | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked OverKnight | 5c | 188.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1,632 | 43.2%705 W · 927 L | -32.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked OverKnight | 19c | 175$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 635 | 41.9%266 W · 369 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed OverKnight | 20c | 152.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 601 | 43.1%259 W · 342 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed OverKnight | 14c | 150.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 399 | 46.4%185 W · 214 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed OverKnight | 21c | 145.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed OverKnight | 16c | 129.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked FarmVille | 78c | 120$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 2,672 | 47.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L | -31.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed FarmVille | 67c | 114.73$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 250 | 45.2%113 W · 137 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3534…a1b3backed OverKnight | 10c | 107.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked OverKnight | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,605 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,234 L | +97.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked OverKnight | 19c | 95.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 300 | 31.7%95 W · 205 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed OverKnight | 21c | 85.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 446 | 43.5%194 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked FarmVille | 69c | 60.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9cf1backed FarmVille | 78c | 50.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc007…a0edbacked OverKnight | 22c | 48.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfee…ed1fbacked FarmVille | 80c | 40.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 169 | 20.1%34 W · 135 L | -16.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed FarmVille | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed FarmVille | 79c | 17.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked FarmVille | 76c | 15.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd923…7ba3backed FarmVille | 77c | 15.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: FarmVille vs OverKnight (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship North American Group Athis page
- Counter-Strike: FarmVille vs OverKnight - Map 1 WinnerFarmVille won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: FV (-1.5) vs OverKnight (+1.5)FarmVille won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.