Earnings · resolved market
Will American Express say "Tariff" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd52ac2cc19827e6015c76a0eea4b4b5b25834ed2cd3f70bf9d8e363f914dc63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa806…83cabacked Yes | 25c | 872.71$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.89 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 33c | 293.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked No | 79c | 151.24$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 151$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 24c | 106.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 73.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | -14.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 75c | 72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…090dbacked No | 75c | 71.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 22c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked No | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 76c | 45.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcca4…abb1backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf571…d2dcbacked No | 75c | 20.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will American Express say "Tariff" during earnings call?this page
- Will American Express say "Airline" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will American Express say "Commercial" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will American Express say "Inventory" during earnings call?No won
- Will American Express say "Wealth" during earnings call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.