UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd7b1147c24aa8f1f98ed3175ddc6338ed005be654aea2fe8d0aa0d11ddef828
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 37c | 313.69$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.84 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked Over | 63c | 274.45$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Over | 62c | 268.2$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…5c3dbacked Over | 60c | 186.66$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.66 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Over | 65c | 154.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 36c | 138$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed Under | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 41c | 121.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 37c | 91.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Under | 39c | 68.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Over | 57c | 59.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 37c | 39.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 37c | 29.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Gauge Young vs. Stan Dorsainvil (Lightweight, Prelims)Stan Dorsainvil won
- Will Stan Dorsainvil win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.