TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,941
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,045

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,941 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates18c500$90 inWon+$4106,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa402…d14bbacked Houston Astros14c257.52$36 inLost-$36.0522151.6%114 W · 107 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros78c218.19$170 inLost-$169.512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked Houston Astros33c211$70 inLost-$69.6310719.6%21 W · 86 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates24c103.4$25 inWon+$78.845,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Pittsburgh Pirates38c89$34 inWon+$55.1872154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros62c86.84$54 inLost-$53.8411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates24c82.51$20 inWon+$62.714,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates22c50$11 inWon+$392,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates38c50$19 inWon+$311,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Pittsburgh Pirates37c36.71$14 inWon+$23.131,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Houston Astros63c35.71$22 inLost-$22.594549%463 W · 482 L-38.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros58c21.86$13 inLost-$12.710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Pittsburgh Pirates50c21.13$11 inWon+$10.56,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros60c19.74$12 inLost-$11.885,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.