Fifa International · resolved market
Will Ecuador beat Venezuela?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd93f020ccbc61a2afc45b5ff4380c05474732cfeabbc0f94aae2efebcf32de9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Yes | 74c | 2,986$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 26c | 2,047$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.99 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 27c | 849.85$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.28 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 27c | 358.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.35 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d9…6dafbacked Yes | 72c | 265$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd3…8d73backed No | 28c | 255$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd261…5c41backed No | 28c | 240$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaf…11e7backed No | 28c | 235$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 28c | 228$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0171…d3fabacked No | 28c | 155$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ce…6ce0backed Yes | 72c | 145$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb134…3e8abacked No | 28c | 130$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…e3f2backed No | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…965dbacked Yes | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +141.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…3505backed Yes | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 25c | 106$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe600…4da3backed Yes | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb6…9496backed Yes | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…0338backed Yes | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…dd1cbacked Yes | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c84…9296backed Yes | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…b9b0backed Yes | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7220…878cbacked Yes | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649d…88afbacked No | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 30c | 76.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd933…9e40backed No | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…3f77backed No | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db4…d97fbacked Yes | 78c | 66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 23c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -8.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbca…74fabacked Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0f…addabacked Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a6…a1cebacked Yes | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe8…d32dbacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb3…330fbacked Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…21fcbacked Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ecuador beat Venezuela?this page
- Will Ecuador vs. Venezuela end in a draw?No won
- Will Venezuela beat Ecuador?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.