Tennis · resolved market
ITF M25 Idanha-a-Nova 2 Men: Pavel Lagutin vs Mathieu Scaglia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd99398b1cfd9ad9c20203a71b90257b7f541993f1102145a4984bbb420d6f18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pavel Lagutinof Pavel Lagutin, Mathieu Scaglia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Pavel Lagutin | 77c | 15,523$12,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,522.35 | 1,211 | 49.1%595 W · 616 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mathieu Scaglia | 25c | 12,924$3,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,215.93 | 11,779 | 43.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L | +20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Mathieu Scaglia | 7c | 2,061$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 975 | 7.9%77 W · 898 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mathieu Scaglia | 18c | 2,033$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.56 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Mathieu Scaglia | 19c | 1,468$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.98 | 3,731 | 45.3%1,690 W · 2,041 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Pavel Lagutin | 72c | 1,245$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.61 | 1,742 | 50.2%875 W · 867 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e9…caedbacked Pavel Lagutin | 74c | 810.81$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.81 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Mathieu Scaglia | 47c | 722.93$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.24 | 340 | 47.6%162 W · 178 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…ef3dbacked Mathieu Scaglia | 24c | 475.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.16 | 493 | 52.5%259 W · 234 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Pavel Lagutin | 70c | 338.46$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.46 | 1,106 | 60.2%666 W · 440 L | +22.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Mathieu Scaglia | 26c | 327.95$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 3,749 | 42.5%1,594 W · 2,155 L | -44.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Pavel Lagutin | 55c | 311.7$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.13 | 1,073 | 57.6%618 W · 455 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mathieu Scaglia | 17c | 286.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 8,834 | 42.5%3,758 W · 5,076 L | -169.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Pavel Lagutin | 70c | 149.15$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 656 | 37.5%246 W · 410 L | -33.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pavel Lagutin | 70c | 125.38$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 8,057 | 50.8%4,089 W · 3,968 L | +90.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Mathieu Scaglia | 11c | 118.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 6,798 | 36.9%2,507 W · 4,291 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Pavel Lagutin | 72c | 111$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 1,316 | 39%513 W · 803 L | -23.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Pavel Lagutin | 66c | 109.81$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 795 | 38.4%305 W · 490 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Pavel Lagutin | 68c | 88.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 553 | 57%315 W · 238 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Pavel Lagutin | 70c | 85.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 3,885 | 55%2,137 W · 1,748 L | +111.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Pavel Lagutin | 70c | 85.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | +43.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45a8…5aedbacked Pavel Lagutin | 73c | 81.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +33%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…9035backed Pavel Lagutin | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 315 | 55.6%175 W · 140 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Pavel Lagutin | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 1,023 | 50%511 W · 512 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…c00fbacked Pavel Lagutin | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 183 | 54.6%100 W · 83 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Pavel Lagutin | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 906 | 54.6%495 W · 411 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Pavel Lagutin | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 967 | 55.9%541 W · 426 L | +21.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Pavel Lagutin | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 981 | 56%549 W · 432 L | +23.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Pavel Lagutin | 74c | 67.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 834 | 57.1%476 W · 358 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Pavel Lagutin | 73c | 67.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 347 | 47.8%166 W · 181 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Pavel Lagutin | 73c | 62.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 486 | 66.5%323 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa52…865bbacked Pavel Lagutin | 70c | 55.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Pavel Lagutin | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 988 | 55.5%548 W · 440 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Pavel Lagutin | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 2,781 | 53.8%1,495 W · 1,286 L | +71.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3e…b9c5backed Pavel Lagutin | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 399 | 58.4%233 W · 166 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…9980backed Pavel Lagutin | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3c…8290backed Pavel Lagutin | 70c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.