Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-03-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdda0f61f597feea137074e544e3896a690fc4974a7a1d54170337328fde3fba3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,433 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 23c | 9,628$2,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,214.55 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 77c | 9,409$7,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,164.05 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 4,221$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.13 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed No | 76c | 2,500$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 70cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…1d79backed Yes | 11c | 1,928$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 1,820$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.77 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed No | 77c | 1,739$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.97 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 23c | 1,100$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,050$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 76c | 722.07$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.3 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 25c | 697$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.25 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 10c | 688$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 7c | 623.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 474.57$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.15 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 8c | 454.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked Yes | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…3d33backed No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 23c | 244$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 23c | 232.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 23c | 189.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 77c | 168$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 11c | 140.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Yes | 23c | 126.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 23c | 123.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 22c | 102.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3696…69cebacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 57 | 71.9%41 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…6672backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2b…0c59backed Yes | 22c | 81.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86c…4c3cbacked No | 77c | 77.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 23c | 58.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ad…4eebbacked No | 78c | 30.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…566bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d6…01ccbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd3…bd7fbacked No | 77c | 23.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 75cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02a…41d1backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-03-06?this page
- Will FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-03-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.