Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3541bb45bd6a23238056dc5a2b58bebf578b8dcdae11cfae2d52278f52fea19f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,715 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 22c | 6,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 3,865$2,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.95 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 78c | 2,145$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.31 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d30…ce29backed Yes | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 17c | 1,659$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.57 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 75c | 1,540$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.1 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 79c | 1,533$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.93 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702b…dedebacked Yes | 27c | 1,230$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 74c | 1,170$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.2 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 1,097$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.42 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,001$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.09 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 21c | 639.13$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.76 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 566.75$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.02 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 26c | 550.12$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.03 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 17c | 452.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.64 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 12c | 338.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 15c | 236.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 27c | 226$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…18c4backed No | 74c | 224$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 26c | 187.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 17c | 158.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 15c | 112.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 27c | 108$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0d…b02fbacked Yes | 27c | 98.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501d…52e2backed Yes | 29c | 96.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 22c | 95.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 20c | 94.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 17c | 89.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Yes | 27c | 77.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba2b…0c59backed Yes | 26c | 73.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 26c | 72.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7206…0dcbbacked Yes | 27c | 64.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 27c | 64.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 63.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 26c | 45.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1066…a2cabacked No | 74c | 33.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 77c | 32.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 41c | 30.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…f19fbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…840bbacked No | 74c | 19.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77e1backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…b79abacked No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked No | 74c | 13.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-03-06?No won
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-03-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.