Olympics · resolved market
Finland vs. Italy: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddbd01dee5883798242fc4466157bfedd921088f047fec1d058392bce9fce6fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Under | 15c | 680.26$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 67c | 365.35$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…7f1dbacked Under | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 34c | 189.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 59c | 149.84$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Over | 59c | 50.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd201…0deebacked Under | 38c | 50.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…a160backed Under | 40c | 49.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 34c | 38.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…93ecbacked Over | 66c | 32.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…511fbacked Over | 67c | 31.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…04cbbacked Over | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 66c | 22.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa80a…caa4backed Over | 66c | 21.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Finland vs. Italy: O/U 5.5this page
- Men's Group B - Finland vs. ItalyFinland won
- Spread: Finland (-1.5)Finland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.