Olympics · resolved market
Men's Group B - Finland vs. Italy
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3f208c8b83f4f0f8167936000c2d7acafe42c37a812e078dd4cd91f919999c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Finlandof Finland, Italy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $327,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $350,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $327,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Italy | 7c | 145,813$9,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,631.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Italy | 3c | 22,564$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.05 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Italy | 5c | 21,905$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Italy | 4c | 19,986$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d1…5795backed Italy | 4c | 12,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Italy | 5c | 10,000$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Italy | 1c | 7,546$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad7…ebebbacked Italy | 4c | 5,951$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Italy | 3c | 4,842$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.09 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ec…81c2backed Italy | 5c | 3,961$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.11 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Italy | 5c | 2,089$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a6…fc8cbacked Italy | 5c | 1,976$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Italy | 3c | 1,965$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Italy | 5c | 1,858$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Italy | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Italy | 8c | 997$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…43d8backed Italy | 5c | 828.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Italy | 5c | 767.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Italy | 4c | 712.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…c19fbacked Italy | 5c | 693$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Italy | 4c | 687.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0b…44fdbacked Italy | 1c | 675.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Italy | 4c | 604$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Italy | 3c | 512.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Italy | 3c | 493.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a870backed Italy | 5c | 450.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec8…16d2backed Italy | 4c | 444.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Italy | 5c | 440.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…c9e4backed Italy | 5c | 411$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…ab72backed Italy | 5c | 408.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8590…f9c6backed Italy | 5c | 378.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2446…ec25backed Italy | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa220…2b2ebacked Italy | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Italy | 6c | 280.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Italy | 6c | 276.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…f345backed Italy | 7c | 269.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6f…11d2backed Italy | 6c | 265.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…6d5cbacked Italy | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Men's Group B - Finland vs. Italythis page
- Finland vs. Italy: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Finland (-1.5)Finland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.