College Football · resolved market
Spread: BYU (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddcfb001a48f18a2730cda80e07f6820b76601238ae48a48bcfc99421f38f8dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BYUof BYU, UCF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9249…4f16backed UCF | 50c | 29,924$14,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,962 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked BYU | 50c | 24,784$12,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,413.32 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed UCF | 50c | 17,013$8,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,486.2 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked BYU | 50c | 14,743$7,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,371.25 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed BYU | 50c | 14,127$7,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,098.49 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed BYU | 49c | 5,000$2,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,530 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed UCF | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.99 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed UCF | 50c | 4,059$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,029.5 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed BYU | 42c | 3,182$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.86 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9607…2d3abacked UCF | 52c | 2,460$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked UCF | 51c | 1,633$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.83 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed UCF | 59c | 1,505$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.05 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked BYU | 48c | 1,469$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.02 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed BYU | 55c | 1,460$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.69 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked BYU | 50c | 940$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked UCF | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x674b…f1afbacked BYU | 51c | 551.73$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed BYU | 48c | 520$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.13 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed UCF | 51c | 363.67$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.47 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed UCF | 49c | 351.73$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.35 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed BYU | 48c | 248.08$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed UCF | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…b3e8backed BYU | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed BYU | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked BYU | 49c | 112.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed UCF | 49c | 103.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed UCF | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x436e…e36fbacked UCF | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed BYU | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked BYU | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked BYU | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed BYU | 51c | 52.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed BYU | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed BYU | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked BYU | 50c | 21.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5f…afbfbacked UCF | 51c | 21.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed BYU | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: BYU (-17.5)this page
- Spread: BYU (-18.5)BYU won
- UCF vs. BYUBYU won
- UCF vs. BYU: O/U 46.5Over won
- UCF vs. BYU: O/U 47.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.