Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde02bd2b2f19a05be0f1a373a19a16171a7521d091e6f853e0004f7315816876
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 65c | 268.98$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.22 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 61c | 233.31$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.47 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 200.24$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 40c | 177.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 41c | 158.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 37c | 156.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 38c | 147.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 35c | 143.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 127.33$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 127.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 122.81$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 39c | 121.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 121.46$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 60c | 106.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 105.26$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 36c | 101.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762f…1533backed Yes | 40c | 99.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 61c | 95.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 65c | 85.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 85.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…fb4dbacked Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 31c | 61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc4…4089backed No | 59c | 59.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 34c | 59.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 32c | 53.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked No | 60c | 53.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked Yes | 35c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 25c | 50.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…04d4backed Yes | 39c | 49.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 42c | 48.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 35c | 46.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 72c | 42.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 61c | 40.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 38.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 27.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked No | 67c | 26.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 41c | 26.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 24.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 75c | 20.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 63c | 18.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 63c | 18.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 18.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 61c | 17.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cb…3007backed No | 66c | 16.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 66c | 15.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C or below on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.