Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Lazio beat Real Sociedad?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde13027a3836e662a5db6cd148dfb0e5d0cac983661841730e9d3d71e7a7d7f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeab5…63a1backed Yes | 67c | 1,384$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…4253backed No | 60c | 1,220$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 65c | 1,122$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.55 | 121 | 66.9%81 W · 40 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.01 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 59c | 497.25$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.38 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed Yes | 40c | 400$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.45 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 40c | 300$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked No | 60c | 249.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.43 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 59c | 207.94$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 129 | 48.8%63 W · 66 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa64a…21dabacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f9…004dbacked Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…9702backed Yes | 40c | 115.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 50c | 79.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 60c | 79.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48ac…714fbacked Yes | 40c | 78.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Yes | 39c | 74.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 60c | 59.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2f…7d08backed Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061d…85c9backed Yes | 34c | 41.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c0…d831backed No | 60c | 39.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…45f4backed Yes | 40c | 39.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd64b…c3cdbacked Yes | 39c | 38.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 33c | 37.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9836…2b74backed Yes | 34c | 36.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…dff2backed Yes | 35c | 36.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf662…a1babacked No | 62c | 35.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b9…5336backed No | 66c | 35.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce36…077dbacked Yes | 40c | 35.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe765…b2e3backed No | 62c | 33.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4771…7310backed No | 62c | 33.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0289…5be5backed Yes | 38c | 33.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…4c9abacked No | 62c | 33.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ae…5e26backed No | 60c | 32.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…f384backed Yes | 40c | 32.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc39c…eeb9backed Yes | 38c | 32.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b61…78e8backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…5cdbbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…ad45backed Yes | 38c | 28.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61db…a32abacked No | 66c | 26.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd176…a1dbbacked No | 60c | 26.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae5…0454backed No | 60c | 26.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…d871backed Yes | 39c | 25.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…cf4bbacked No | 60c | 25.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ce…e902backed Yes | 40c | 25.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7e…b881backed No | 60c | 24.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…e937backed No | 62c | 23.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0884…44debacked No | 65c | 19.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9451…e39bbacked No | 62c | 16.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lazio beat Real Sociedad?this page
- Will Real Sociedad beat Lazio?No won
- Will the match between Lazio and Real Sociedad end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.