Music · resolved market
Feds raid Jay-Z before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde7ddec7196cba82452911bc51ca8f422445c1f9680a2b977b123cd3a89cd257
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 19c | 6,265$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…50a4backed Yes | 6c | 3,475$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…3f05backed Yes | 5c | 3,353$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes | 16c | 2,520$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 1,156$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf6…2c78backed Yes | 2c | 998.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 14c | 773$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.94 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 5c | 700$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8d…1df6backed Yes | 5c | 678.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked Yes | 3c | 526.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65e…afadbacked Yes | 7c | 345.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 5c | 341$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d65…3781backed Yes | 4c | 336.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9de…0dc5backed Yes | 5c | 320$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8163…e061backed Yes | 17c | 299.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 78c | 268$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…f8dcbacked Yes | 18c | 255.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa749…ae58backed Yes | 8c | 243.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 230$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 196.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked Yes | 18c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 14c | 114$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…c9acbacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49c…415ebacked Yes | 31c | 83.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 76c | 65.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e23…2200backed Yes | 34c | 59.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7728…f932backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e63…9313backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 24c | 43.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.