Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Portland Pilots (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde8fd0997fad4c678fd6decd3a4b53d7e36ad9737909ae59b593325e7b76d5ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Portland Pilotsof Portland Pilots, Oregon State Beavers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Portland Pilots | 46c | 1,794$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.76 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Oregon State Beavers | 54c | 1,564$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.56 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Portland Pilots | 41c | 750$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Oregon State Beavers | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 279 | 55.2%154 W · 125 L | +22.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Oregon State Beavers | 56c | 414.18$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.66 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +7.9wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Portland Pilots | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Oregon State Beavers | 54c | 359.99$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oregon State Beavers | 54c | 58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Oregon State Beavers | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Portland Pilots (-2.5)this page
- Oregon State Beavers vs. Portland PilotsPortland Pilots won
- Spread: Portland Pilots (-1.5)Portland Pilots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.