Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Portland Pilots (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd597dae0d49f8160380c73965b226a20723c6f8fd9b8ee1b91e12eae31f732ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Portland Pilotsof Portland Pilots, Oregon State Beavers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Oregon State Beavers | 50c | 130,000$65,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,000 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Portland Pilots | 50c | 104,302$52,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,151 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Portland Pilots | 50c | 30,262$15,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,133.27 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Oregon State Beavers | 49c | 18,888$9,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,255.1 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Portland Pilots | 51c | 10,977$5,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,381.64 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Portland Pilots | 51c | 2,547$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.03 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Portland Pilots | 51c | 2,326$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.28 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked Oregon State Beavers | 49c | 904.95$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.54 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Oregon State Beavers | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Oregon State Beavers | 51c | 131.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Oregon State Beavers | 50c | 106.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Oregon State Beavers | 51c | 95.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Portland Pilots | 49c | 86.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -8.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Oregon State Beavers | 51c | 84.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 158 | 44.3%70 W · 88 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Portland Pilots | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Portland Pilots | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Portland Pilots | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 217 | 46.1%100 W · 117 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Oregon State Beavers | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…03c5backed Oregon State Beavers | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…b85fbacked Portland Pilots | 51c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +60%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Portland Pilots | 50c | 20.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…9fddbacked Oregon State Beavers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Portland Pilots (-1.5)this page
- Oregon State Beavers vs. Portland PilotsPortland Pilots won
- Spread: Portland Pilots (-2.5)Portland Pilots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.