Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde962c88e5a4e71a437f92ed9c5431518e840643e21b6dc5d0dfd6b4d1b19a34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,263 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 999.99$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb44e…681abacked No | 30c | 936.21$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.86 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 18c | 710.56$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.83 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 43c | 441.72$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.39 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0592…9ccdbacked Yes | 28c | 355.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +255.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 66c | 317.74$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.7 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked Yes | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +75%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 71c | 243.05$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 29c | 215.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…10afbacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 37c | 142.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 70c | 109.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…d60fbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa563…6a3ebacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce6…16ccbacked Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe0…d820backed Yes | 54c | 68.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 62c | 59.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcabf…7fc6backed No | 67c | 58.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…f339backed Yes | 61c | 49.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Yes | 54c | 48.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…fca5backed Yes | 71c | 38.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d3…a677backed No | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3902…43f8backed Yes | 69c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 28.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…8352backed Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e38…c9edbacked No | 77c | 22.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…2c98backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…15e0backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on March 9?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on March 9?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on March 9?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.