Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59a76daeeadf275fd1806f243ba2fd75668554d80e6d0f4d318bb02effb3fa6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,041 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 12c | 4,014$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.23 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 5c | 3,719$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 65c | 2,281$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.56 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 32c | 1,904$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb19e…912cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,303$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…d803backed No | 72c | 953.88$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 70c | 617.62$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.29 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9a…9061backed Yes | 4c | 342.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…be36backed Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf23c…555dbacked Yes | 29c | 299.94$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 35c | 289.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…8a40backed Yes | 30c | 230$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…a764backed No | 50c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.67 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +539.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 155.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6417…2ce4backed Yes | 28c | 149.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 28c | 149.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 101.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfd…db32backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38b…9917backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…34b8backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad8…6be0backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3988…7ae9backed No | 72c | 76.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 69c | 53.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…2da7backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed Yes | 29c | 38.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…2a73backed No | 63c | 35.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 77c | 30.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 69c | 24.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on March 9?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on March 9?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on March 9?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.