Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xded1e966b7176e002cc0f39e0de2947577a2d948691879459863e221dfd9512b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Aurora, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f90…6269backed Aurora | 30c | 528.81$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 317.94$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.75 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Aurora | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Aurora | 7c | 205$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 50.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 151 | 67.5%102 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ab…70a2backed Aurora | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 45.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked Aurora | 32c | 37.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…abccbacked Natus Vincere | 72c | 33.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x461f…8719backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 13.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.